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Linfield vs Carrick Rangers Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Linfield

PPG 1.97 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWW ·

UPCOMING

Carrick Rangers

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.4%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.2%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 59.9% 1.67 -25.4%

Draw 25.4% 27.0% 3.70 -3.6%

Away win 29.9% 21.7% 4.60 +22.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 55.5% 58.8% 1.70 -5.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 57.8% 1.73 -31.0%

Away O1.5 36.8% 30.8% 3.25 +19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.5%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linfield1.5

Carrick Rangers1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LINFIELD · PPG 1.97

CARRICK RANGERS · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Linfield (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -25.4%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.6%

Carrick Rangers (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linfield face Carrick Rangers in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linfield a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Carrick Rangers 30%, so Linfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Linfield and 1.2 for Carrick Rangers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linfield are averaging 1.97 points per game versus 1.88 for Carrick Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +30.3%.

Linfield vs Carrick Rangers Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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