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Cliftonville FC vs Dungannon Swifts Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Cliftonville FC

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Dungannon Swifts

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 48.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.3%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.1%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 52.4% 1.91 -2.4%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 54.8% 61.7% 1.62 -11.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.8%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cliftonville FC1.8

Dungannon Swifts1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CLIFTONVILLE FC · PPG 1.78

DUNGANNON SWIFTS · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cliftonville FC (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -2.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Dungannon Swifts (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cliftonville FC face Dungannon Swifts in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cliftonville FC a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Dungannon Swifts 25%, so Cliftonville FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cliftonville FC and 1.1 for Dungannon Swifts (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cliftonville FC are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.42 for Dungannon Swifts. This match finished 0-2.

Cliftonville FC vs Dungannon Swifts Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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