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Portadown vs Coleraine FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Portadown

PPG 1.16 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Coleraine FC

PPG 2.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWW ·

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-113.0%0-211.1%0-36.3%0-4+4.0%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-02.8%2-14.9%2-24.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 13.2% 7.60 +42.1%

Draw 22.9% 21.7% 4.60 +3.2%

Away win 54.7% 75.2% 1.33 -27.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 60.6% 1.65 -16.7%

Over 3.5 29.6% 37.7% 2.65 -12.9%

BTTS 51.3% 51.8% 1.93 -1.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 22.2% 4.50 +39.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 70.4% 1.42 -32.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob51.3%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.0%

#2 1–1 11.3%

#3 0–2 11.1%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portadown0.9

Coleraine FC1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTADOWN · PPG 1.16

COLERAINE FC · PPG 2.02

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.85 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Portadown (H) 22.4%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +42.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +3.2%

Coleraine FC (A) 54.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portadown face Coleraine FC in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portadown a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Coleraine FC 55%, so Coleraine FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Portadown and 1.7 for Coleraine FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portadown are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 2.02 for Coleraine FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +39.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Portadown vs Coleraine FC Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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