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Bangor vs Carrick Rangers Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Bangor

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Carrick Rangers

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.2%0-26.8%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.1%1-112.0%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.8%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 20.0% 5.00 +58.0%

Draw 25.4% 25.0% 4.00 +1.0%

Away win 42.9% 64.5% 1.55 -33.5%

Over 2.5 53.3% 59.9% 1.67 -11.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 38.2% 2.62 -17.5%

BTTS 54.3% 59.9% 1.67 -9.3%

Home O1.5 37.2% 28.6% 3.50 +30.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 63.7% 1.57 -35.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.3%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bangor1.3

Carrick Rangers1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGOR · PPG 1.01

CARRICK RANGERS · PPG 1.70

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bangor (H) 31.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +58.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.0%

Carrick Rangers (A) 42.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -33.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bangor face Carrick Rangers in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bangor a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Carrick Rangers 43%, so Carrick Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bangor and 1.5 for Carrick Rangers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bangor are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.70 for Carrick Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +63.4%. This match finished 0-4.

Bangor vs Carrick Rangers Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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