Today / Northern-Ireland - Premiership / Larne vs Dungannon

Larne vs Dungannon Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Championship Group - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Larne

PPG 2.16 · HOME

8 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dungannon

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 85.9% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-11.7%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.2%1-14.8%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-16.9%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.9%3-16.6%3-21.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-020.1%4+-19.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 85.9% 84.7% 1.18 +1.4%

Draw 10.3% 19.0% 5.25 -45.9%

Away win 3.8% 6.7% 15.00 -43.0%

Over 2.5 64.8% 60.6% 1.65 +6.9%

Over 3.5 42.7% 38.5% 2.60 +11.0%

BTTS 35.5% 42.6% 2.35 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 29.7%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.5%

H 86% / xG 2.9-0.5 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 3–0 13.9%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 4–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Larne2.9

Dungannon0.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LARNE · PPG 2.16

DUNGANNON · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.16), Away POOR (0.89) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Larne (H) 85.9%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV +1.4%

Draw 10.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -45.9%

Dungannon (A) 3.8%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV -43.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Larne face Dungannon in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Larne a 86% chance, the draw 10% and Dungannon 4%, so Larne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Larne and 0.5 for Dungannon (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Larne are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 0.89 for Dungannon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 8-0.

Larne vs Dungannon Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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