Larne vs Dungannon Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Northern-Ireland - Premiership Championship Group - 38 Inver Park· Larne Saturday, April 25, 2026 16:30

Larne PPG 2.16

8-0 MISS

Dungannon PPG 0.89

Over3.5· +11.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Larne face Dungannon in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Larne a 86% chance, the draw 10% and Dungannon 4%, so Larne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Larne and 0.5 for Dungannon (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Larne are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 0.89 for Dungannon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 8-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 85.9%

Odds: 1.18 EV: +1.4%

Draw 10.3%

Odds: 5.25 EV: -45.9%

Away 3.8%

Odds: 15.00 EV: -43.0%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 64.8% Odds: 1.65 +6.9%

Over 3.5 42.7% Odds: 2.60 +11.0%

BTTS 35.5% Odds: 2.35 -16.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 4-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Larne

2.86

Dungannon

0.47

Model SuggestionHome +1.4% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+11.0%)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.16), Away POOR (0.89) - Strong consensus