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Celtic vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Celtic

PPG 2.31 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Falkirk

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.6%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-16.9%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-19.0%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.8%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.0%4+-19.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.1% 71.9% 1.39 +5.8%

Draw 14.8% 21.5% 4.65 -31.2%

Away win 9.1% 13.7% 7.30 -33.6%

Over 2.5 66.1% 67.6% 1.48 -2.2%

Over 3.5 44.3% 46.5% 2.15 -4.8%

BTTS 50.9% 61.7% 1.62 -17.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.9%

H 76% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celtic2.6

Falkirk0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTIC · PPG 2.31

FALKIRK · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.31), Away AVERAGE (1.44) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Celtic (H) 76.1%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV +5.8%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -31.2%

Falkirk (A) 9.1%

ODDS 7.30 · IMPLIED 13.7% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celtic face Falkirk in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celtic a 76% chance, the draw 15% and Falkirk 9%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Celtic and 0.8 for Falkirk (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celtic are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.44 for Falkirk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Celtic vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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