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Burgos vs Deportivo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 37 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Burgos

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-110.1%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.7%1-112.9%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.2%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 40.0% 2.50 +17.8%

Draw 28.9% 37.6% 2.66 -23.1%

Away win 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 16.1% — — —

BTTS 40.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.4%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 1–1✓ 12.9%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burgos1.3

Deportivo0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BURGOS · PPG 1.83

DEPORTIVO · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Burgos (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +17.8%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -23.1%

Deportivo (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burgos face Deportivo in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burgos a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo 24%, so Burgos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Burgos and 0.8 for Deportivo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burgos are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.78 for Deportivo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Burgos vs Deportivo Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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