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Osijek vs Lok. Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:15

Osijek

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Lok. Zagreb

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-112.5%0-26.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.8%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-17.3%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.6%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 44.6% 2.24 -19.8%

Draw 29.7% 31.3% 3.20 -5.0%

Away win 34.4% 32.8% 3.05 +4.9%

Over 2.5 35.8% 50.0% 2.00 -28.4%

Over 3.5 16.6% 28.2% 3.55 -41.1%

BTTS 42.9% 57.8% 1.73 -25.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob42.9%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 0–0✓ 11.9%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osijek1.1

Lok. Zagreb1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OSIJEK · PPG 1.00

LOK. ZAGREB · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

43%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Osijek (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -19.8%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.0%

Lok. Zagreb (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osijek face Lok. Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osijek a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Lok. Zagreb 34%, so Osijek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Osijek and 1.1 for Lok. Zagreb (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osijek are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Lok. Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Osijek vs Lok. Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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