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Persebaya S. vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 12:00

Persebaya S.

PPG 1.79 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Madura Utd

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.3%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.7%1-111.8%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 62.5% 1.60 -17.9%

Draw 24.9% 27.8% 3.60 -10.4%

Away win 23.8% 20.0% 5.00 +19.0%

Over 2.5 48.8% 55.6% 1.80 -12.2%

Over 3.5 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -19.3%

BTTS 51.0% 56.5% 1.77 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.0%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persebaya S.1.6

Madura Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSEBAYA S. · PPG 1.79

MADURA UTD · PPG 0.77

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=51.3%

Win probability 1X2

Persebaya S. (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.4%

Madura Utd (A) 23.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persebaya S. face Madura Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persebaya S. a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Madura Utd 24%, so Persebaya S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Persebaya S. and 1.0 for Madura Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persebaya S. are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.77 for Madura Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Persebaya S. vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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