Persebaya S. vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 28 Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium· Surabaya Friday, April 17, 2026 12:00

Persebaya S. PPG 1.79

1-2 MISS

Madura Utd PPG 0.77

Away· +19.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Persebaya S. face Madura Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persebaya S. a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Madura Utd 24%, so Persebaya S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Persebaya S. and 1.0 for Madura Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persebaya S. are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.77 for Madura Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.3%

Odds: 1.60 EV: -17.9%

Draw 24.9%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -10.4%

Away 23.8%

Odds: 5.00 EV: +19.0%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.8% Odds: 1.80 -12.2%

Over 3.5 26.9% Odds: 3.00 -19.3%

BTTS 51.0% Odds: 1.77 -9.7%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Persebaya S.

1.61

Madura Utd

1.01

Model SuggestionHome -17.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -17.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+19.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=51.3%