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Meerssen vs VVSB Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:00

Meerssen

PPG 0.53 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

VVSB

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-15.4%0-27.5%0-36.9%0-4+9.4%1 1-02.3%1-16.3%1-28.7%1-38.1%1-4+11.0%2 2-01.3%2-13.7%2-25.1%2-34.7%2-4+6.4%3 3-00.5%3-11.4%3-22.0%3-31.8%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% — — —

Draw 15.6% — — —

Away win 70.9% — — —

Over 2.5 75.4% — — —

Over 3.5 55.6% — — —

BTTS 64.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob64.6%

A 71% / xG 1.2-2.8 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–3 8.1%

#3 0–2✓ 7.5%

#4 0–3 6.9%

#5 1–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meerssen1.2

VVSB2.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 55.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MEERSSEN · PPG 0.53

VVSB · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

Meerssen (H) 13.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

VVSB (A) 70.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Meerssen face VVSB in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meerssen a 14% chance, the draw 16% and VVSB 71%, so VVSB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Meerssen and 2.8 for VVSB (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meerssen are averaging 0.53 points per game versus 1.50 for VVSB. This match finished 0-2.

Meerssen vs VVSB Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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