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Genoa W vs Inter Milan W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:00

Genoa W

PPG 0.78 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Inter Milan W

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 79.1% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-17.1%0-210.1%0-39.7%0-4+14.1%1 1-02.0%1-15.9%1-28.5%1-38.1%1-4+11.7%2 2-00.9%2-12.5%2-23.5%2-33.4%2-4+4.9%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.0%3-30.9%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.0% 9.1% 11.00 -12.0%

Draw 13.0% 18.2% 5.50 -28.5%

Away win 79.1% 83.3% 1.20 -5.1%

Over 2.5 71.5% — — —

Over 3.5 50.7% — — —

BTTS 53.3% 47.6% 2.10 +11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob53.3%

A 79% / xG 0.8-2.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.1%

#2 0–3 9.7%

#3 1–2✓ 8.5%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genoa W0.8

Inter Milan W2.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GENOA W · PPG 0.78

INTER MILAN W · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs Home POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Genoa W (H) 8.0%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV -12.0%

Draw 13.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -28.5%

Inter Milan W (A) 79.1%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genoa W face Inter Milan W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genoa W a 8% chance, the draw 13% and Inter Milan W 79%, so Inter Milan W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Genoa W and 2.9 for Inter Milan W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genoa W are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 2.11 for Inter Milan W. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Genoa W vs Inter Milan W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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