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Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:00

Samgurali

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-115.5%0-26.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.7%1-112.9%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.0%2-15.4%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.5%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% — — —

Draw 35.2% — — —

Away win 30.7% — — —

Over 2.5 21.8% — — —

Over 3.5 7.9% — — —

BTTS 30.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob30.4%

D 35% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 22% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 0–1 15.5%

#4 1–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samgurali0.8

Dinamo Tbilisi0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.8% · O3.5 PROB 7.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.33

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Samgurali (H) 34.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dinamo Tbilisi (A) 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Dinamo Tbilisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 34% chance, the draw 35% and Dinamo Tbilisi 31%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Samgurali and 0.8 for Dinamo Tbilisi (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for Dinamo Tbilisi. This match finished 1-2.

Samgurali vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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