Bologna vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 34 Stadio Renato Dall'Ara· Bologna Saturday, April 25, 2026 16:00

Bologna PPG 1.25

0-2 MISS

AS Roma PPG 1.38

Home· +27.7% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna face AS Roma in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna a 39% chance, the draw 30% and AS Roma 31%, so Bologna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bologna and 1.0 for AS Roma (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.38 for AS Roma. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.3%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +27.7%

Draw 29.7%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -5.0%

Away 31.1%

Odds: 2.24 EV: -30.3%

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 35.5% Odds: 2.00 -29.0%

Over 3.5 16.5% Odds: 3.60 -40.6%

BTTS 42.4% Odds: 1.80 -23.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Bologna

1.14

AS Roma

0.98

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -26.7%

Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.38)