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Bologna vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:00

Bologna

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

AS Roma

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-111.8%0-25.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.7%1-113.4%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.8%2-17.6%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 30.8% 3.25 +27.7%

Draw 29.7% 31.3% 3.20 -5.0%

Away win 31.1% 44.6% 2.24 -30.3%

Over 2.5 35.5% 50.0% 2.00 -29.0%

Over 3.5 16.5% 27.8% 3.60 -40.6%

BTTS 42.4% 55.6% 1.80 -23.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob42.4%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna1.1

AS Roma1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.5% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.25

AS ROMA · PPG 1.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Bologna (H) 39.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +27.7%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.0%

AS Roma (A) 31.1%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna face AS Roma in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna a 39% chance, the draw 30% and AS Roma 31%, so Bologna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bologna and 1.0 for AS Roma (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.38 for AS Roma. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Bologna vs AS Roma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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