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Venezia vs Empoli Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:15

Venezia

PPG 2.65 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Empoli

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 88.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a clear edge.

+19.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.1%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.5%1-13.8%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.9%2-16.4%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.3%3-17.1%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-024.2%4+-114.1%4+-24.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 88.6% 74.1% 1.35 +19.6%

Draw 8.0% 20.6% 4.85 -61.2%

Away win 3.4% 12.5% 8.00 -72.8%

Over 2.5 75.4% 63.7% 1.57 +18.4%

Over 3.5 55.6% 41.7% 2.40 +33.4%

BTTS 42.6% 56.5% 1.77 -24.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 89% / xG 3.4-0.6 / O2.5 75% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.3%

#2 2–0✓ 10.9%

#3 4–0 10.3%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 5–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Venezia3.4

Empoli0.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 55.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VENEZIA · PPG 2.65

EMPOLI · PPG 0.82

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.65), Away POOR (0.82) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Venezia (H) 88.6%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV +19.6%

Draw 8.0%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -61.2%

Empoli (A) 3.4%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -72.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Venezia face Empoli in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Venezia a 89% chance, the draw 8% and Empoli 3%, so Venezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Venezia and 0.6 for Empoli (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Venezia are averaging 2.65 points per game versus 0.82 for Empoli. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Venezia vs Empoli Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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