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Hassania Agadir vs Ittihad Tanger Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:00

Hassania Agadir

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ittihad Tanger

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Home 46% chance

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+17.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-19.9%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.6%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.2%2-16.8%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.8%3-12.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 43.5% 2.30 +17.8%

Draw 31.4% 33.3% 3.00 -5.8%

Away win 17.5% 33.3% 3.00 -47.5%

Over 2.5 25.0% 40.8% 2.45 -38.8%

Over 3.5 9.7% 21.1% 4.75 -53.9%

BTTS 29.4% 50.0% 2.00 -41.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob29.4%

H 51% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 25% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.8%

#2 0–0 17.8%

#3 2–0 12.2%

#4 1–1✓ 11.6%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hassania Agadir1.2

Ittihad Tanger0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HASSANIA AGADIR · PPG 1.00

ITTIHAD TANGER · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

46%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Hassania Agadir (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +17.8%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.8%

Ittihad Tanger (A) 17.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hassania Agadir face Ittihad Tanger in Morocco - Botola Pro on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hassania Agadir a 51% chance, the draw 31% and Ittihad Tanger 18%, so Hassania Agadir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hassania Agadir and 0.6 for Ittihad Tanger (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hassania Agadir are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.71 for Ittihad Tanger. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Hassania Agadir vs Ittihad Tanger Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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