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Hrvace vs Orijent Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:00

Hrvace

PPG 1.62 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orijent

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+46.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.4%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.3%1-110.4%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-16.4%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 40.0% 2.50 +46.8%

Draw 21.9% 35.7% 2.80 -38.7%

Away win 19.4% 38.2% 2.62 -49.2%

Over 2.5 56.0% — — —

Over 3.5 33.6% — — —

BTTS 54.1% 54.1% 1.85 +0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.1%

H 59% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hrvace1.9

Orijent1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HRVACE · PPG 1.62

ORIJENT · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.62) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Hrvace (H) 58.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +46.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -38.7%

Orijent (A) 19.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -49.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hrvace face Orijent in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hrvace a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Orijent 19%, so Hrvace are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hrvace and 1.0 for Orijent (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hrvace are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.14 for Orijent. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +46.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Hrvace vs Orijent Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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