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Dubrava Zagreb vs Sesvete Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:00

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Sesvete

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.5%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.4%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.5%2-17.8%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 31.3% 3.20 +23.8%

Draw 29.0% 34.7% 2.88 -16.5%

Away win 32.3% 47.6% 2.10 -32.2%

Over 2.5 37.9% — — —

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.5%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 0–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dubrava Zagreb1.2

Sesvete1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.64

SESVETE · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Dubrava Zagreb (H) 38.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +23.8%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -16.5%

Sesvete (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dubrava Zagreb face Sesvete in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dubrava Zagreb a 39% chance, the draw 29% and Sesvete 32%, so Dubrava Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dubrava Zagreb and 1.0 for Sesvete (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dubrava Zagreb are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.75 for Sesvete. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Dubrava Zagreb vs Sesvete Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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