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M. Kharkiv vs Bukovyna Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 11:00

M. Kharkiv

PPG 1.18 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Bukovyna

PPG 2.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 82.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+16.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-19.5%0-213.3%0-312.4%0-4+17.0%1 1-02.0%1-15.6%1-27.8%1-37.3%1-4+10.0%2 2-00.6%2-11.6%2-22.3%2-32.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.3% 12.5% 8.00 -57.6%

Draw 11.7% 27.8% 3.60 -57.9%

Away win 82.9% 71.4% 1.40 +16.1%

Over 2.5 65.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.7% — — —

BTTS 41.7% 43.5% 2.30 -4.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob41.7%

A 83% / xG 0.6-2.8 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.3%

#2 0–3 12.4%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 0–4 8.6%

#5 1–2✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Kharkiv0.6

Bukovyna2.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

M. KHARKIV · PPG 1.18

BUKOVYNA · PPG 2.82

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.82) vs Home AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

M. Kharkiv (H) 5.3%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -57.6%

Draw 11.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -57.9%

Bukovyna (A) 82.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Kharkiv face Bukovyna in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Kharkiv a 5% chance, the draw 12% and Bukovyna 83%, so Bukovyna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for M. Kharkiv and 2.8 for Bukovyna (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Kharkiv are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 2.82 for Bukovyna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 1-2.

M. Kharkiv vs Bukovyna Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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