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Qabala vs Araz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:30

Qabala

PPG 0.77 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Araz

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.4%0-25.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.1%1-112.0%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 48.8% 2.05 -18.6%

Draw 25.4% 32.3% 3.10 -21.3%

Away win 34.9% 29.9% 3.35 +16.9%

Over 2.5 52.1% 51.3% 1.95 +1.6%

Over 3.5 30.0% 29.4% 3.40 +2.0%

BTTS 56.0% 57.8% 1.73 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.0%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–0 9.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qabala1.4

Araz1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

QABALA · PPG 0.77

ARAZ · PPG 1.14

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.77) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Qabala (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -18.6%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -21.3%

Araz (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qabala face Araz in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qabala a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Araz 35%, so Qabala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Qabala and 1.3 for Araz (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qabala are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 1.14 for Araz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Qabala vs Araz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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