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Villarreal B vs UD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:15

Villarreal B

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

UD Ibiza

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 42.9% — a clear edge.

+68.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-14.2%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.0%1-18.4%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.0%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-15.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-14.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.4% 42.9% 2.33 +68.7%

Draw 18.9% 35.1% 2.85 -46.1%

Away win 8.7% 32.3% 3.10 -73.0%

Over 2.5 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Over 3.5 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -3.7%

BTTS 35.3% 55.6% 1.80 -36.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.3%

H 72% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 16.0%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal B2.0

UD Ibiza0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL B · PPG 1.75

UD IBIZA · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal B (H) 72.4%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +68.7%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -46.1%

UD Ibiza (A) 8.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -73.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal B face UD Ibiza in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal B a 72% chance, the draw 19% and UD Ibiza 9%, so Villarreal B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Villarreal B and 0.5 for UD Ibiza (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal B are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.06 for UD Ibiza. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +68.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Villarreal B vs UD Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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