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Valladolid vs Real Sociedad B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 37 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:15

Valladolid

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Real Sociedad B

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLD

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.6%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 64.9% 1.54 -21.1%

Draw 25.2% 25.6% 3.90 -1.7%

Away win 23.6% 16.7% 6.00 +41.6%

Over 2.5 47.3% 54.1% 1.85 -12.5%

Over 3.5 25.6% 32.3% 3.10 -20.6%

BTTS 49.8% 54.6% 1.83 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.8%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 12.1%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valladolid1.6

Real Sociedad B1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALLADOLID · PPG 1.28

REAL SOCIEDAD B · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.28) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Valladolid (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -21.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.7%

Real Sociedad B (A) 23.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +41.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valladolid face Real Sociedad B in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valladolid a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Real Sociedad B 24%, so Valladolid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Valladolid and 1.0 for Real Sociedad B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valladolid are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.83 for Real Sociedad B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Valladolid vs Real Sociedad B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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