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Luzern B vs Breitenrain Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Luzern B

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Breitenrain

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.4%0-22.4%0-31.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.9%1-15.8%1-25.8%1-33.8%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.0%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.9%3-15.7%3-25.7%3-33.8%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-16.2%4+-26.2%4+-34.1%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 51.3% 1.95 -5.2%

Draw 19.2% 26.7% 3.74 -28.2%

Away win 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

Over 2.5 81.8% 74.6% 1.34 +9.6%

Over 3.5 64.6% 52.1% 1.92 +24.0%

BTTS 78.8% 74.6% 1.34 +5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob78.8%

H 49% / xG 2.4-2.0 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.1%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzern B2.4

Breitenrain2.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.8% · O3.5 PROB 64.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZERN B · PPG 1.71

BREITENRAIN · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=48.6%

Win probability 1X2

Luzern B (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -5.2%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.74 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -28.2%

Breitenrain (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzern B face Breitenrain in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzern B a 49% chance, the draw 19% and Breitenrain 32%, so Luzern B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Luzern B and 2.0 for Breitenrain (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzern B are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.64 for Breitenrain. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Luzern B vs Breitenrain Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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