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Bavois vs Lugano B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Bavois

PPG 1.71 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lugano B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.2%1-16.7%1-24.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-18.9%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.8%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-19.6%4+-26.2%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% 71.9% 1.39 -8.0%

Draw 17.1% 22.2% 4.50 -23.1%

Away win 16.7% 17.1% 5.85 -2.3%

Over 2.5 75.0% 71.9% 1.39 +4.3%

Over 3.5 55.1% 49.5% 2.02 +11.3%

BTTS 67.2% 64.5% 1.55 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob67.2%

H 66% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bavois2.6

Lugano B1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BAVOIS · PPG 1.71

LUGANO B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bavois (H) 66.2%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -8.0%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -23.1%

Lugano B (A) 16.7%

ODDS 5.85 · IMPLIED 17.1% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bavois face Lugano B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bavois a 66% chance, the draw 17% and Lugano B 17%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Bavois and 1.3 for Lugano B (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bavois are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Lugano B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Bavois vs Lugano B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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