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Basel B vs Kreuzlingen Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Basel B

PPG 1.93 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kreuzlingen

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.4%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.0%1-16.6%1-23.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-19.0%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.1%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-110.6%4+-25.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.4% 61.7% 1.62 +15.7%

Draw 15.7% 23.1% 4.33 -32.0%

Away win 12.9% 26.3% 3.80 -51.0%

Over 2.5 73.2% 73.5% 1.36 -0.4%

Over 3.5 52.7% 49.5% 2.02 +6.5%

BTTS 62.1% 70.9% 1.41 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 71% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 2–0 8.2%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.4%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Basel B2.7

Kreuzlingen1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.2% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BASEL B · PPG 1.93

KREUZLINGEN · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Basel B (H) 71.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +15.7%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -32.0%

Kreuzlingen (A) 12.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -51.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Basel B face Kreuzlingen in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basel B a 71% chance, the draw 16% and Kreuzlingen 13%, so Basel B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Basel B and 1.1 for Kreuzlingen (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basel B are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.86 for Kreuzlingen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 2-4.

Basel B vs Kreuzlingen Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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