Glenavon vs Carrick Rangers Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Northern-Ireland - Premiership Relegation Group - 38 Mourneview Park· Lurgan Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

Glenavon PPG 1.06

2-3 MISS

Carrick Rangers PPG 1.39

Away· +23.8% ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenavon face Carrick Rangers in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenavon a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Carrick Rangers 53%, so Carrick Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Glenavon and 1.8 for Carrick Rangers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenavon are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.39 for Carrick Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 24.4%

Odds: 2.75 EV: -32.9%

Draw 22.9%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -25.6%

Away 52.7%

Odds: 2.35 EV: +23.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.7% Odds: 1.85 +6.8%

Over 3.5 35.3% Odds: 3.10 +9.4%

BTTS 57.9% Odds: 1.65 -4.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Glenavon

1.17

Carrick Rangers

1.83

Model SuggestionBTTS -4.5% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-4.5%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 83%

BTTS/No 83%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away AVERAGE (1.39)