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Glenavon vs Carrick Rangers Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Glenavon

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Carrick Rangers

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-19.1%0-28.3%0-35.1%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.8%1-110.7%1-29.7%1-35.9%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.4%2-16.3%2-25.7%2-33.5%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 36.4% 2.75 -32.9%

Draw 22.9% 30.8% 3.25 -25.6%

Away win 52.7% 42.6% 2.35 +23.8%

Over 2.5 57.7% 54.1% 1.85 +6.8%

Over 3.5 35.3% 32.3% 3.10 +9.4%

BTTS 57.9% 60.6% 1.65 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob57.9%

A 53% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1 9.1%

#4 0–2 8.3%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenavon1.2

Carrick Rangers1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENAVON · PPG 1.06

CARRICK RANGERS · PPG 1.39

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

60%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

Glenavon (H) 24.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -32.9%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -25.6%

Carrick Rangers (A) 52.7%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenavon face Carrick Rangers in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenavon a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Carrick Rangers 53%, so Carrick Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Glenavon and 1.8 for Carrick Rangers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenavon are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.39 for Carrick Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Glenavon vs Carrick Rangers Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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