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Crusaders vs Ballymena Utd Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Crusaders

PPG 0.72 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ballymena Utd

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.0%0-25.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.7%1-110.7%1-28.5%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.2%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.6%3-14.2%3-23.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 25.3% 3.95 +45.4%

Draw 23.7% 26.0% 3.85 -8.8%

Away win 39.5% 58.8% 1.70 -32.9%

Over 2.5 60.6% 60.6% 1.65 -0.0%

Over 3.5 38.3% 37.7% 2.65 +1.5%

BTTS 62.6% 61.7% 1.62 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 29.7%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.6%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crusaders1.5

Ballymena Utd1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUSADERS · PPG 0.72

BALLYMENA UTD · PPG 0.94

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.72), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Crusaders (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +45.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.8%

Ballymena Utd (A) 39.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crusaders face Ballymena Utd in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crusaders a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Ballymena Utd 40%, so Ballymena Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Crusaders and 1.6 for Ballymena Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crusaders are averaging 0.72 points per game versus 0.94 for Ballymena Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Crusaders vs Ballymena Utd Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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