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Bangor vs Portadown Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Bangor

PPG 1.11 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Portadown

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.0%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.1%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 38.5% 2.60 +19.9%

Draw 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -17.1%

Away win 28.4% 40.8% 2.45 -30.4%

Over 2.5 49.6% 55.6% 1.80 -10.7%

Over 3.5 27.6% 33.9% 2.95 -18.6%

BTTS 53.0% 62.5% 1.60 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 0%

ROI 29.7%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bangor1.5

Portadown1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGOR · PPG 1.11

PORTADOWN · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.11), Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Bangor (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +19.9%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.1%

Portadown (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bangor face Portadown in Northern-Ireland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bangor a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Portadown 28%, so Bangor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bangor and 1.1 for Portadown (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bangor are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.89 for Portadown. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 2-4.

Bangor vs Portadown Prediction— Northern-Ireland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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