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Slovacko vs Dukla Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Slovacko

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Dukla Praha

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-19.4%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.3%1-111.3%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-16.7%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.1%3-12.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 51.5% 1.94 +2.0%

Draw 31.0% 31.3% 3.20 -0.8%

Away win 16.4% 26.0% 3.85 -36.9%

Over 2.5 24.9% 51.3% 1.95 -51.4%

Over 3.5 9.7% 29.9% 3.35 -67.5%

BTTS 28.7% 57.8% 1.73 -50.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 3.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob28.7%

H 53% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 25% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.3%

#2 0–0 17.8%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovacko1.2

Dukla Praha0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.9% · O3.5 PROB 9.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVACKO · PPG 1.07

DUKLA PRAHA · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Slovacko (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV +2.0%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -0.8%

Dukla Praha (A) 16.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -36.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovacko face Dukla Praha in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovacko a 53% chance, the draw 31% and Dukla Praha 16%, so Slovacko are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Slovacko and 0.5 for Dukla Praha (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovacko are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.43 for Dukla Praha. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Slovacko vs Dukla Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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