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Sparta Praha vs Zlin Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Regular Season - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:00

Sparta Praha

PPG 2.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zlin

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.1%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-110.9%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 82.6% 1.21 -35.8%

Draw 23.5% 18.2% 5.50 +17.5%

Away win 23.3% 8.0% 12.50 +114.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 67.6% 1.48 -21.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% 46.5% 2.15 -30.8%

BTTS 55.4% 51.8% 1.93 +6.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 78.1% 1.28 -36.8%

Away O1.5 29.8% 19.0% 5.25 +33.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 3.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Praha1.8

Zlin1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA PRAHA · PPG 2.08

ZLIN · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Praha (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -35.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +17.5%

Zlin (A) 23.3%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +114.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Praha face Zlin in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Praha a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Zlin 23%, so Sparta Praha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sparta Praha and 1.0 for Zlin (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Praha are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.14 for Zlin. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +129.2%.

Sparta Praha vs Zlin Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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