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Slavia Prague vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Slavia Prague

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sigma Olomouc

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Home 74% chance

Model probability 78.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-12.9%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.5%1-16.9%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.8%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.4%3-16.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-16.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.7% 71.9% 1.39 +9.4%

Draw 15.0% 22.5% 4.45 -33.3%

Away win 6.4% 14.7% 6.80 -56.5%

Over 2.5 54.4% 58.8% 1.70 -7.5%

Over 3.5 32.1% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

BTTS 36.2% 54.1% 1.85 -33.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.2%

H 79% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 3–0 12.4%

#4 2–1✓ 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Prague2.3

Sigma Olomouc0.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA PRAGUE · PPG 2.57

SIGMA OLOMOUC · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

74%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.57), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Prague (H) 78.7%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV +9.4%

Draw 15.0%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -33.3%

Sigma Olomouc (A) 6.4%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -56.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Prague face Sigma Olomouc in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Prague a 79% chance, the draw 15% and Sigma Olomouc 6%, so Slavia Prague are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Slavia Prague and 0.5 for Sigma Olomouc (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Prague are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.07 for Sigma Olomouc. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Slavia Prague vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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