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Pardubice vs Zlin Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Pardubice

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Zlin

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.7%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.3%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.4%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 50.5% 1.98 -0.8%

Draw 24.0% 30.8% 3.25 -22.0%

Away win 26.0% 27.8% 3.60 -6.4%

Over 2.5 54.3% 50.0% 2.00 +8.6%

Over 3.5 32.0% 28.2% 3.55 +13.6%

BTTS 56.0% 55.6% 1.80 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.0%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pardubice1.7

Zlin1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PARDUBICE · PPG 1.21

ZLIN · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Pardubice (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -0.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -22.0%

Zlin (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pardubice face Zlin in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pardubice a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Zlin 26%, so Pardubice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pardubice and 1.2 for Zlin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pardubice are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.07 for Zlin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Pardubice vs Zlin Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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