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FC Praha W vs Plzen W Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 12:00

FC Praha W

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Plzen W

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+20.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.2%0-22.6%0-32.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-02.1%1-15.1%1-26.0%1-34.7%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-26.9%2-35.5%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.9%3-14.6%3-25.4%3-34.2%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-14.6%4+-25.4%4+-34.3%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 53.2% 1.88 -23.5%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 37.4% 28.2% 3.55 +32.8%

Over 2.5 73.3% 60.6% 1.65 +20.9%

Over 3.5 68.9% 38.2% 2.62 +80.5%

BTTS 66.7% 64.5% 1.55 +3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob66.7%

H 41% / xG 2.3-2.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Praha W2.3

Plzen W2.4

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 68.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PRAHA W · PPG 0.56

PLZEN W · PPG 0.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.56), Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

FC Praha W (H) 40.7%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -23.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Plzen W (A) 37.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Praha W face Plzen W in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Praha W a 41% chance, the draw 22% and Plzen W 37%, so FC Praha W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for FC Praha W and 2.4 for Plzen W (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Praha W are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.56 for Plzen W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +80.5%. This match finished 3-0.

FC Praha W vs Plzen W Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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