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Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Jablonec

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Slovan Liberec

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-19.3%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-112.8%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 44.4% 2.25 +6.2%

Draw 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -9.3%

Away win 25.3% 34.2% 2.92 -26.1%

Over 2.5 40.3% 52.6% 1.90 -23.4%

Over 3.5 20.0% 30.8% 3.25 -35.0%

BTTS 45.1% 59.9% 1.67 -24.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.1%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jablonec1.4

Slovan Liberec0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JABLONEC · PPG 1.86

SLOVAN LIBEREC · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Jablonec (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.3%

Slovan Liberec (A) 25.3%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jablonec face Slovan Liberec in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jablonec a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Slovan Liberec 25%, so Jablonec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Jablonec and 0.9 for Slovan Liberec (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jablonec are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.21 for Slovan Liberec. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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