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Bohemians vs Sparta Prague Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Bohemians

PPG 1.07 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sparta Prague

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-116.0%0-212.0%0-36.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.8%1-111.8%1-28.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-02.9%2-14.3%2-23.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.3% 22.0% 4.55 -16.7%

Draw 26.1% 27.4% 3.65 -4.7%

Away win 55.6% 59.5% 1.68 -6.6%

Over 2.5 38.9% 57.1% 1.75 -31.9%

Over 3.5 18.9% 35.7% 2.80 -47.1%

BTTS 40.6% 59.9% 1.67 -32.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob40.6%

A 56% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.0%

#2 0–2 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians0.7

Sparta Prague1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.07

SPARTA PRAGUE · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 18.3%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -16.7%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.7%

Sparta Prague (A) 55.6%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face Sparta Prague in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 18% chance, the draw 26% and Sparta Prague 56%, so Sparta Prague are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Bohemians and 1.5 for Sparta Prague (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.93 for Sparta Prague. This match finished 2-0.

Bohemians vs Sparta Prague Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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