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Karvina vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Karvina

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mlada Boleslav

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+17.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.1%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.3%1-17.5%1-25.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.4%2-19.0%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.1%3-17.2%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-17.6%4+-25.4%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 45.5% 2.20 +30.7%

Draw 19.0% 28.6% 3.50 -33.5%

Away win 21.5% 35.0% 2.86 -38.5%

Over 2.5 73.3% 62.5% 1.60 +17.3%

Over 3.5 52.9% 40.0% 2.50 +32.3%

BTTS 68.7% 67.6% 1.48 +1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob68.7%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karvina2.4

Mlada Boleslav1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KARVINA · PPG 1.21

MLADA BOLESLAV · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Karvina (H) 59.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +30.7%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -33.5%

Mlada Boleslav (A) 21.5%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -38.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karvina face Mlada Boleslav in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karvina a 59% chance, the draw 19% and Mlada Boleslav 22%, so Karvina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Karvina and 1.4 for Mlada Boleslav (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karvina are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.00 for Mlada Boleslav. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Karvina vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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