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Slaven Belupo vs Vukovar Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Slaven Belupo

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Vukovar

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 70.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1% — a clear edge.

+20.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.4%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.0%1-18.1%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-17.6%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-17.8%4+-23.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% 58.1% 1.72 +20.4%

Draw 17.4% 29.0% 3.45 -40.0%

Away win 12.6% 22.0% 4.55 -42.7%

Over 2.5 63.4% 54.1% 1.85 +17.3%

Over 3.5 41.3% 32.3% 3.10 +28.0%

BTTS 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 70% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slaven Belupo2.4

Vukovar0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 1.67

VUKOVAR · PPG 0.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

62%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Slaven Belupo (H) 70.0%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV +20.4%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -40.0%

Vukovar (A) 12.6%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -42.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slaven Belupo face Vukovar in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slaven Belupo a 70% chance, the draw 17% and Vukovar 13%, so Slaven Belupo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Slaven Belupo and 0.9 for Vukovar (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slaven Belupo are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.40 for Vukovar. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Slaven Belupo vs Vukovar Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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