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St. Mirren vs Livingston Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

St. Mirren

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Livingston

PPG 0.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.6%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.9%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 61.0% 1.64 -11.3%

Draw 25.4% 26.3% 3.80 -3.5%

Away win 20.5% 20.0% 5.00 +2.5%

Over 2.5 43.5% 55.6% 1.80 -21.7%

Over 3.5 22.5% 33.3% 3.00 -32.5%

BTTS 45.4% 56.5% 1.77 -19.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.4%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Mirren1.6

Livingston0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. MIRREN · PPG 1.25

LIVINGSTON · PPG 0.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=54.1%

Win probability 1X2

St. Mirren (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -11.3%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.5%

Livingston (A) 20.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Mirren face Livingston in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Mirren a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Livingston 21%, so St. Mirren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for St. Mirren and 0.9 for Livingston (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Mirren are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.35 for Livingston. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 0-2.

St. Mirren vs Livingston Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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