St. Mirren vs Livingston Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Scotland - Premiership Relegation Group - 34 The SMISA Stadium· Paisley Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

St. Mirren PPG 1.25

0-2 MISS

Livingston PPG 0.35

Away· +2.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Mirren face Livingston in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Mirren a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Livingston 21%, so St. Mirren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for St. Mirren and 0.9 for Livingston (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Mirren are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.35 for Livingston. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.1%

Odds: 1.64 EV: -11.3%

Draw 25.4%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -3.5%

Away 20.5%

Odds: 5.00 EV: +2.5%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.5% Odds: 1.80 -21.7%

Over 3.5 22.5% Odds: 3.00 -32.5%

BTTS 45.4% Odds: 1.77 -19.6%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

St. Mirren

1.57

Livingston

0.85

Model SuggestionHome -11.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -11.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+2.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 1.4%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=54.1%