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Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Aberdeen

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kilmarnock

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a clear edge.

+29.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.2%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.1%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-17.2%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 50.5% 1.98 +29.5%

Draw 19.4% 28.2% 3.55 -31.1%

Away win 15.3% 28.2% 3.55 -45.7%

Over 2.5 60.5% 55.6% 1.80 +8.9%

Over 3.5 38.1% 33.3% 3.00 +14.3%

BTTS 54.4% 59.9% 1.67 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.4%

H 65% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0✓ 9.6%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aberdeen2.2

Kilmarnock0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ABERDEEN · PPG 1.25

KILMARNOCK · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Aberdeen (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +29.5%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -31.1%

Kilmarnock (A) 15.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -45.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aberdeen face Kilmarnock in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aberdeen a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Kilmarnock 15%, so Aberdeen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Aberdeen and 0.9 for Kilmarnock (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aberdeen are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.56 for Kilmarnock. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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