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TOGB vs Scheveningen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

TOGB

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Scheveningen

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.7%0-22.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.1%1-16.7%1-25.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.1%3-16.7%3-25.5%3-33.0%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-17.4%4+-26.1%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% — — —

Draw 19.1% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 77.6% — — —

Over 3.5 58.6% — — —

BTTS 73.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob73.8%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TOGB2.5

Scheveningen1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.6% · O3.5 PROB 58.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TOGB · PPG 1.53

SCHEVENINGEN · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

TOGB (H) 55.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Scheveningen (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TOGB face Scheveningen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TOGB a 56% chance, the draw 19% and Scheveningen 25%, so TOGB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for TOGB and 1.6 for Scheveningen (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TOGB are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.93 for Scheveningen. This match finished 2-3.

TOGB vs Scheveningen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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