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Kloetinge vs Zwaluwen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Kloetinge

PPG 2.53 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zwaluwen

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.4%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.0%1-19.2%1-26.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.0%3-16.6%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.5%4+-23.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 24.0% — — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 64.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.1%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.5%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–0 7.0%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kloetinge2.1

Zwaluwen1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KLOETINGE · PPG 2.53

ZWALUWEN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.53) vs P(Home)=54.9%

Win probability 1X2

Kloetinge (H) 54.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zwaluwen (A) 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kloetinge face Zwaluwen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kloetinge a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Zwaluwen 24%, so Kloetinge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Kloetinge and 1.3 for Zwaluwen (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kloetinge are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.33 for Zwaluwen. This match finished 2-1.

Kloetinge vs Zwaluwen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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