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AC Milan W vs Napoli W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

AC Milan W

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Napoli W

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.9%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.2%1-110.6%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.7%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -23.4%

Away win 27.7% 30.3% 3.30 -8.6%

Over 2.5 59.4% 57.1% 1.75 +4.0%

Over 3.5 37.0% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 8.2%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Milan W1.8

Napoli W1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AC MILAN W · PPG 1.56

NAPOLI W · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

AC Milan W (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -4.1%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -23.4%

Napoli W (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan W face Napoli W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan W a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Napoli W 28%, so AC Milan W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AC Milan W and 1.3 for Napoli W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan W are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.67 for Napoli W. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 0-0.

AC Milan W vs Napoli W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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