Bhayangkara S. vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 28 Sumpah Pemuda· Bandar Lampung Friday, April 17, 2026 08:30

Bhayangkara S. PPG 2.08

2-1 HIT CS4

PSIM Yogyakarta PPG 1.43

Away· +86.7% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Bhayangkara S. face PSIM Yogyakarta in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bhayangkara S. a 33% chance, the draw 28% and PSIM Yogyakarta 39%, so PSIM Yogyakarta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bhayangkara S. and 1.3 for PSIM Yogyakarta (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bhayangkara S. are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.43 for PSIM Yogyakarta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +86.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.0%

Odds: 1.62 EV: -46.5%

Draw 27.7%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +1.1%

Away 39.3%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +86.7%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.6% Odds: 1.80 -23.3%

Over 3.5 21.8% Odds: 3.00 -34.6%

BTTS 48.4% Odds: 1.75 -15.3%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Bhayangkara S.

1.13

PSIM Yogyakarta

1.26

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.08) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)