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Bhayangkara S. vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 08:30

Bhayangkara S.

PPG 2.08 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

PSIM Yogyakarta

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-111.6%0-27.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.4%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 61.7% 1.62 -46.5%

Draw 27.7% 27.4% 3.65 +1.1%

Away win 39.3% 21.1% 4.75 +86.7%

Over 2.5 42.6% 55.6% 1.80 -23.3%

Over 3.5 21.8% 33.3% 3.00 -34.6%

BTTS 48.4% 57.1% 1.75 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.4%

A 39% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bhayangkara S.1.1

PSIM Yogyakarta1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BHAYANGKARA S. · PPG 2.08

PSIM YOGYAKARTA · PPG 1.43

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.08) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Bhayangkara S. (H) 33.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -46.5%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.1%

PSIM Yogyakarta (A) 39.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +86.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bhayangkara S. face PSIM Yogyakarta in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bhayangkara S. a 33% chance, the draw 28% and PSIM Yogyakarta 39%, so PSIM Yogyakarta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bhayangkara S. and 1.3 for PSIM Yogyakarta (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bhayangkara S. are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.43 for PSIM Yogyakarta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +86.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Bhayangkara S. vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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