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Sudtirol vs Mantova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Sudtirol

PPG 1.24 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mantova

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 42.4% — a clear edge.

+35.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-17.1%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.0%1-111.5%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.2%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-14.9%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 42.4% 2.36 +35.7%

Draw 24.8% 33.6% 2.98 -26.1%

Away win 17.7% 31.3% 3.20 -43.4%

Over 2.5 42.4% 47.6% 2.10 -11.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% 27.0% 3.70 -20.1%

BTTS 42.8% 57.1% 1.75 -25.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.8%

H 57% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sudtirol1.6

Mantova0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDTIROL · PPG 1.24

MANTOVA · PPG 0.76

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.24) > Away POOR (0.76)

Win probability 1X2

Sudtirol (H) 57.5%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +35.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -26.1%

Mantova (A) 17.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -43.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sudtirol face Mantova in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sudtirol a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Mantova 18%, so Sudtirol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sudtirol and 0.8 for Mantova (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sudtirol are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.76 for Mantova. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Sudtirol vs Mantova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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