Reggiana vs Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Italy - Serie B Regular Season - 36 MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore· Reggio Emilia Saturday, April 25, 2026 13:00

Reggiana PPG 1.24

1-1 HIT CS2

Palermo PPG 1.47

Home· +20.2% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Reggiana face Palermo in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reggiana a 23% chance, the draw 27% and Palermo 50%, so Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Reggiana and 1.4 for Palermo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reggiana are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.47 for Palermo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 22.9%

Odds: 5.25 EV: +20.2%

Draw 27.1%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +3.0%

Away 50.0%

Odds: 1.62 EV: -19.0%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 39.9% Odds: 1.90 -24.2%

Over 3.5 19.7% Odds: 3.25 -36.0%

BTTS 43.9% Odds: 1.83 -19.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Reggiana

0.86

Palermo

1.42

Model SuggestionAway -19.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -19.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+20.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 6.9%

Bet Hit 59% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.24), Away AVERAGE (1.47)