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Reggiana vs Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Reggiana

PPG 1.24 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Palermo

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-114.5%0-210.3%0-34.9%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.5%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.8%2-15.4%2-23.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 19.0% 5.25 +20.2%

Draw 27.1% 26.3% 3.80 +3.0%

Away win 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Over 2.5 39.9% 52.6% 1.90 -24.2%

Over 3.5 19.7% 30.8% 3.25 -36.0%

BTTS 43.9% 54.6% 1.83 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob43.9%

A 50% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.5%

#2 1–1✓ 12.5%

#3 0–2 10.3%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reggiana0.9

Palermo1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REGGIANA · PPG 1.24

PALERMO · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.24), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Reggiana (H) 22.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +20.2%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +3.0%

Palermo (A) 50.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reggiana face Palermo in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reggiana a 23% chance, the draw 27% and Palermo 50%, so Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Reggiana and 1.4 for Palermo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reggiana are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.47 for Palermo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Reggiana vs Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions