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Pescara vs Juve Stabia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Pescara

PPG 1.18 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Juve Stabia

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+16.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.2%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.2%1-110.1%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.1%3-16.3%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 48.1% 2.08 +11.9%

Draw 22.1% 29.0% 3.45 -23.8%

Away win 24.1% 29.4% 3.40 -18.1%

Over 2.5 61.2% 52.6% 1.90 +16.3%

Over 3.5 38.9% 30.8% 3.25 +26.4%

BTTS 60.5% 58.8% 1.70 +2.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.5%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 8.2%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pescara1.9

Juve Stabia1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PESCARA · PPG 1.18

JUVE STABIA · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.18), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Pescara (H) 53.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +11.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -23.8%

Juve Stabia (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pescara face Juve Stabia in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pescara a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Juve Stabia 24%, so Pescara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Pescara and 1.2 for Juve Stabia (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pescara are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.94 for Juve Stabia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Pescara vs Juve Stabia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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