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Frosinone vs Carrarese Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Italy - Serie B logo Italy flag Italy - Serie B Regular Season - 36 Stadio Benito Stirpe· Frosinone Saturday, April 25, 2026 13:00
Frosinone logo Frosinone PPG 2.06
3-0 HIT CS2
Carrarese logo Carrarese PPG 0.88
Home· +31.0% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Frosinone face Carrarese in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frosinone a 82% chance, the draw 12% and Carrarese 6%, so Frosinone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Frosinone and 0.7 for Carrarese (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frosinone are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.88 for Carrarese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 81.9%
Odds: 1.60 EV: +31.0%
Draw 11.8%
Odds: 4.10 EV: -51.6%
Away 6.4%
Odds: 5.00 EV: -68.0%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 71.1% Odds: 1.57 +11.6%
Over 3.5 50.1% Odds: 2.40 +20.2%
BTTS 49.2% Odds: 1.57 -22.8%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 3-0
3rd 2-1
4th 4-0
5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Frosinone
2.94
Carrarese
0.73

Model Suggestion

Home +31.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.06), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

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