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Frosinone vs Carrarese Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Frosinone

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Carrarese

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 81.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+31.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-11.9%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.4%1-15.5%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.0%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.7%3-17.9%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.3%4+-112.0%4+-24.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.9% 62.5% 1.60 +31.0%

Draw 11.8% 24.4% 4.10 -51.6%

Away win 6.4% 20.0% 5.00 -68.0%

Over 2.5 71.1% 63.7% 1.57 +11.6%

Over 3.5 50.1% 41.7% 2.40 +20.2%

BTTS 49.2% 63.7% 1.57 -22.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 82% / xG 2.9-0.7 / O2.5 71% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 3–0✓ 10.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 4–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frosinone2.9

Carrarese0.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.1% · O3.5 PROB 50.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FROSINONE · PPG 2.06

CARRARESE · PPG 0.88

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.06), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Frosinone (H) 81.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +31.0%

Draw 11.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -51.6%

Carrarese (A) 6.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -68.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Frosinone face Carrarese in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frosinone a 82% chance, the draw 12% and Carrarese 6%, so Frosinone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Frosinone and 0.7 for Carrarese (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frosinone are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.88 for Carrarese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Frosinone vs Carrarese Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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