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Entella vs Padova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Entella

PPG 1.65 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Padova

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-18.6%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.3%1-112.1%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-18.6%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.1%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 50.0% 2.00 +6.2%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.2%

Away win 19.7% 27.0% 3.70 -27.1%

Over 2.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

Over 3.5 17.4% 26.3% 3.80 -33.9%

BTTS 39.9% 54.6% 1.83 -27.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.9%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.3%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Entella1.4

Padova0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ENTELLA · PPG 1.65

PADOVA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Entella (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +6.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.2%

Padova (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Entella face Padova in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Entella a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Padova 20%, so Entella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Entella and 0.7 for Padova (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Entella are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.06 for Padova. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Entella vs Padova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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