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Parma vs Pisa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Parma

PPG 0.94 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pisa

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+23.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-17.9%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-111.2%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-17.9%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.4%3-13.8%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 46.5% 2.15 +23.8%

Draw 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.7%

Away win 15.2% 28.6% 3.50 -46.8%

Over 2.5 32.5% 44.4% 2.25 -26.9%

Over 3.5 14.4% 23.8% 4.20 -39.5%

BTTS 33.6% 51.3% 1.95 -34.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.6%

H 58% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.1%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 13.5%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parma1.4

Pisa0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PARMA · PPG 0.94

PISA · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.94) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Parma (H) 57.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +23.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.7%

Pisa (A) 15.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -46.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parma face Pisa in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parma a 58% chance, the draw 27% and Pisa 15%, so Parma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Parma and 0.6 for Pisa (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parma are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.50 for Pisa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Parma vs Pisa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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