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SteDoCo vs Groene Ster Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

SteDoCo

PPG 1.07 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Groene Ster

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.7%0-26.8%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.3%1-111.5%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.6%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 45.5% 2.20 -29.2%

Draw 24.6% 33.3% 3.00 -26.2%

Away win 43.2% 35.7% 2.80 +21.0%

Over 2.5 55.3% — — —

Over 3.5 32.9% — — —

BTTS 58.1% 66.7% 1.50 -12.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.1%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 8.7%

#4 2–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SteDoCo1.3

Groene Ster1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STEDOCO · PPG 1.07

GROENE STER · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

SteDoCo (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -29.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -26.2%

Groene Ster (A) 43.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

SteDoCo face Groene Ster in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SteDoCo a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Groene Ster 43%, so Groene Ster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for SteDoCo and 1.6 for Groene Ster (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SteDoCo are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.67 for Groene Ster. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 3-0.

SteDoCo vs Groene Ster Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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