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Noordwijk vs Gemert Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

Noordwijk

PPG 1.71 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gemert

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.5%0-26.5%0-34.3%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.3%1-36.2%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.6%2-26.6%2-34.4%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.6%3-13.1%3-23.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 50.9% — — —

Over 2.5 66.4% — — —

Over 3.5 44.6% — — —

BTTS 65.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob65.6%

A 51% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Noordwijk1.4

Gemert2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOORDWIJK · PPG 1.71

GEMERT · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Noordwijk (H) 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gemert (A) 50.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Noordwijk face Gemert in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Noordwijk a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Gemert 51%, so Gemert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Noordwijk and 2.0 for Gemert (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Noordwijk are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.00 for Gemert. This match finished 4-1.

Noordwijk vs Gemert Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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